CoinEx Research: Crypto Rebounds in July as Semiconductor Selloff Tests Market Correlations

Bitcoin and Ether advanced despite a sharp correction in AI-related equities, while ETF flows, long-term Treasury yields and stablecoin liquidity remained key signals heading into August

HONG KONG, Aug. 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CoinEx Research has released its July 2026 crypto market review, highlighting a notable divergence between recovering digital assets and sharply weaker semiconductor stocks.

Bitcoin gained 7.4% during July to close at approximately $62,900, while Ether rose 18.7% to $1,860. Over the same period, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 20.6% as higher long-term interest rates prompted investors to reassess valuations across the AI infrastructure sector.

According to CoinEx Research, July’s performance showed that crypto selling pressure had eased, but the available data did not yet confirm a durable return of institutional demand.

“July was a recovery in price, but not yet a full recovery in conviction,” CoinEx Research said. “ETF outflows stabilized and market positioning improved, allowing Bitcoin and Ether to rebound. However, sustained recovery will likely require stronger institutional inflows and a more supportive macroeconomic environment.”

ETF Flows Turn Positive but Remain Modest

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $173 million in net inflows across 22 trading days in July. This marked the first positive month since April and represented a significant improvement from June, when ETFs experienced a record $4.5 billion in net outflows.

CoinEx Research noted that the return to positive flows was constructive because it suggested persistent selling had subsided. However, the scale of inflows remained well below the multibillion-dollar demand recorded during stronger periods of institutional participation.

Bitcoin opened July at $58,566, briefly declined to a monthly low of $58,466 and later reached a high of $66,800 before closing at $62,900. Ether outperformed Bitcoin, recording its first meaningful relative recovery following a 21.9% decline in June.

CoinEx Research characterized the July rally as a mean-reversion move from heavily reduced positioning rather than evidence that crypto had fully decoupled from broader macroeconomic conditions.

Long-Term Treasury Yields Tighten Financial Conditions

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 meeting. However, three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate increase, marking the first unified three-way hawkish dissent since September 2016.

While the Fed left short-term rates unchanged, the bond market continued to tighten financial conditions. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.24%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield ended July near 4.75%.

CoinEx Research identified the gap between a stable policy rate and rising long-term yields as one of the most important macroeconomic risks entering August.

“The long end of the Treasury curve is effectively delivering the tightening that the Federal Reserve has so far declined to implement through its policy rate,” the report said. “Whether the 30-year yield remains above 5% will be an important signal for both digital assets and other duration-sensitive markets.”

Semiconductor Stocks Face Sharp Repricing

The strongest deleveraging during July occurred in semiconductor and AI-related equities rather than crypto.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 20.6% during the month and ended approximately 22.7% below its June record. Several major semiconductor companies experienced significantly larger drawdowns as investors reassessed the relationship between AI infrastructure spending, cash generation and near-term monetization.

CoinEx Research said the market was not rejecting AI investment indiscriminately. Instead, investors increasingly differentiated between companies able to demonstrate visible revenue from AI infrastructure and those relying on more distant expected returns.

Microsoft and Amazon outperformed after reporting continued growth in Azure and AWS, while Alphabet, Meta and Apple faced greater pressure. The dividing line was not simply the size of capital expenditure, but the credibility of monetization, cash flow and forward guidance.

Bitcoin and Ether moved in the opposite direction during the month. However, CoinEx Research cautioned that one month of divergence was insufficient to establish a structural break in the relationship between crypto and technology equities.

Crypto Infrastructure Expands as Regulation Stalls

Development across the digital asset sector continued despite slower regulatory progress in the United States.

The CLARITY Act ended July without a Senate floor vote. Debate surrounding the legislation shifted from stablecoin yield to proposed restrictions preventing senior government officials from profiting from digital assets under their regulatory influence.

Prediction market pricing indicated limited confidence that the legislation would become law before year-end, reinforcing uncertainty for institutions awaiting clearer market-structure rules.

Meanwhile, Visa launched its Stablecoin Platform, allowing participating banks and fintech companies to issue, store, transfer and redeem stablecoins through Visa-managed infrastructure connected to more than 200 million merchants.

The platform initially supports Open USD, developed by the Open Standard consortium. Unlike traditional stablecoin models in which issuers retain most reserve income, Open Standard proposes returning a larger share of that income to distribution partners.

CoinEx Research said the model could shift competitive advantage in stablecoins from issuance toward distribution.

“Stablecoin economics are increasingly being determined by who controls access to users and merchants,” the report said. “Licensing and reserve management remain important, but distribution may become the industry’s scarcest asset.”

Robinhood Chain Records Strong Activity, Led by Speculation

Robinhood also launched Robinhood Chain, an Arbitrum-based Ethereum Layer 2 offering around-the-clock access to approximately 100 tokenized stocks through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries outside the United States.

The network processed $16.96 billion in decentralized exchange volume during July. Reported real-world asset trading accounted for $562.4 million, or approximately 3.32% of total activity.

The share of RWA trading increased toward the end of the month, but speculative assets remained the network’s primary growth driver. Nearly 688,500 tokens were launched during July, while total value locked reached approximately $358.3 million by month-end.

CoinEx Research said Robinhood had successfully built a settlement and liquidity layer, but direct demand for tokenized equities remained difficult to separate from memecoin activity and launch incentives.

The key indicator going forward will be the percentage of RWA volume that remains after speculative trading pairs and promotional incentives are excluded.

Stablecoin Outflows Slow

Stablecoin supply recorded a net outflow of $3.4 billion in July, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. However, the pace of decline slowed by approximately 40% from June’s $5.5 billion outflow.

CoinEx Research interpreted the deceleration as evidence that selling pressure was easing, although it did not yet indicate a broad return of market demand.

Combined with positive ETF flows and Bitcoin’s monthly gain, the slower stablecoin contraction suggests that liquidity conditions improved during July without fully reversing the defensive trend established earlier in the year.

Outlook for August

CoinEx Research remains cautiously constructive heading into August.

The report identified several indicators that could determine whether July’s rebound develops into a more durable recovery:

• Whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows increase from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars;
• Whether the 30-year Treasury yield remains above 5%;
• Whether stablecoin supply returns to net growth;
• Whether Bitcoin breaks out of its prevailing trading range;
• Whether crypto continues to outperform technology equities during periods of broader market stress.
  

Bitcoin’s positioning and leverage indicators improved during July, while subdued volatility could create conditions for a breakout if the macro environment stabilizes.

CoinEx Research is also monitoring NEAR, which may be approaching the final stage of its technical correction. At the protocol level, increased fee capture and the introduction of the NIST-compliant ML-DSA-65 post-quantum signature scheme could support its longer-term infrastructure proposition.

“July showed that crypto can remain resilient even when highly valued technology sectors are under pressure,” CoinEx Research concluded. “The next phase will depend on whether that resilience is supported by stronger capital inflows and improving liquidity, rather than simply the absence of additional selling.”

About CoinEx

Established in 2017, CoinEx is a user-centric cryptocurrency exchange backed by the industry-leading mining pool ViaBTC. Since its launch, CoinEx has been among the earliest exchanges to release proof-of-reserves and implement a 100% reserve policy, ensuring the security of user assets. Today, CoinEx serves over 10 million users across 200+ countries and regions and supports more than 1,100 cryptocurrencies with professional-grade features and services, establishing itself as a trusted crypto trading expert.

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